David McRaney  |  Journalist

Residents fear '06 storm season

The roofers left Louise Cavanaugh's lawn crisscrossed with tire tracks and her porch littered with empty soda cans.

But it was a fair trade for a fresh new roof on both her home and garage. Eight months have passed since Katrina, and for most of that time a blue tarp seemed good enough.

"I had estimates go as high as $12,000 to fix it," said Cavanaugh, who held out for months while scores of carpetbaggers placed offers at her door. "I finally convinced my insurance company to help me a little, and I found a team of roofers I could trust."

Cavanaugh, like many Hattiesburg residents, feels like she is just now getting her house and mind back in order after the worst disaster to plow through the Pine Belt since the Civil War.

Most of the stumps are ground down, the shattered trees have been hauled away and the FEMA tarps have been replaced by fresh new shingles - just in time for the 2006 hurricane season.

Beginning July 1, about two months from now, the next Atlantic hurricane season will begin, and experts are already predicting a nasty batch of storms.

Dr. William Gray with Colorado State University said the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made hurricane season forecasts for 23 years. His team has become rather adept at predicting the weather in that time, and they say while this year won't match last year, people should prepare.

According to 53 years worth of data collected by the group and the latest advances in climatology, 2006 will likely produce 17 named storms and nine hurricanes - of which five will be intense. In short, it's going to be a busy, above-average season once again.

"The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average," said Gray in a press release. "We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average."

According to the project, there is a 64 percent chance the U.S. east coast will be hit, and a 47 percent chance a major hurricane will directly strike the Gulf of Mexico Coast.

Gray added, "We believe that 2006 will be a very active season in the Atlantic basin."

The official word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be released on May 22, and most experts believe it will offer a similar prediction. And, as National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said, we can expect this kind of activity for the next 10 to 20 years.

Officials with the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency suggest everyone be more prepared this time around. Water, gasoline and food were in high demand and short supply after Katrina, while generators and chainsaws were quickly hard to find. With over 60 days to prepare before this season officially begins, local residents might do well to slowly begin stocking up.

MEMA officials are already urging local families to develop and review a "Family Disaster Plan" prior to the 2006 hurricane season. They say the plan should include an evacuation strategy, a communication plan and a disaster supply kit. This all comes as part of the Mississippi's new "Stay Alert. Stay Alive." hurricane preparedness campaign.

"People around here have to realize that they live in a place were natural disasters are an annual threat," said James Edwards, a lifetime resident of the Hattiesburg area. His home was flooded and skewered by a neighbor's pine tree during Katrina. He was without power for a week, and ran out of gas within the first two days because he didn't prepare and had little cash on hand. He says things will be different this time around.

"People in California stay prepared for earthquakes," said Edwards. "People close to the Gulf Coast are just going to have to expect this kind of thing from now on."

MEMA suggests local residents check the expiration dates on bottled water, food and other shelved supplies. Also on their list of necessities are flashlights with fresh batteries, sanitary items, can-openers, knives, radios and cash.

For those who plan on leaving the area, now is the time to begin making reservations or arrangements with friends and family.

Cavanaugh has ordered a batch of topsoil to be delivered so she can fill in the pocks and scars the roofers left in her yard, but the decorative trees will not be coming back. She said it doesn't feel like enough time has passed for her neighborhood to start getting frightened again. Many of her friends have complained about mowing the yard and trimming hedges considering they expect everything to be covered with limbs and shingles in a few weeks.

"Until I get a feel for what the next few seasons are going to be like, I'm not going to replant my willow tree," said Cavanaugh. "What's the use?"

Originally published in The Student Printz on April 27, 2006